Research
U.S. intelligence now assesses China has no fixed timeline to invade Taiwan and likely prefers coercive non-military pathways, yet China's military budget has grown for 31 consecutive years and its gray-zone maritime pressure on Taiwan intensified throughout 2025. The central tension is whether China's accelerating demographic collapse and economic stagnation — real GDP growth potentially as low as 1-2.5%, birthrates at 1762 levels — close the invasion window by draining resources, or paradoxically open it by creating strategic urgency to act before relative power erodes irreversibly. Taiwan's own political dysfunction, a $31 billion arms backlog, and persistent mismatch between asymmetric defense rhetoric and conventional military spending suggest the island's ability to exploit any Chinese hesitation remains deeply uncertain.
“The [intelligence community] assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a ...
This new weakness gives Xi the opportunity to pursue long-term unification through economic pressure and international isolation. Indeed, the ...
Chinese president Xi Jinping has a strategic window, in the 2030 timeframe, when favorable conditions exist to forcefully annex Taiwan.
TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan's military has revamped its combat readiness framework to better counter China's evolving gray-zone tactics.
Taiwan fields multiple layers of medium- and high-altitude air and missile defenses designed to counter aircraft, cruise missiles, and short- ...
China's actual 2025 GDP growth fell short of 3%. For domestic demand to lift China above 2% GDP growth in 2026, Beijing must reverse the systemic causes of household and business malaise or pile on costly demand subsidies.
The defense budget is only 1.4% of China's GDP, again according to official figures. [7] U.S. estimates, published in the 2007 Annual Report to ...
The most intellectually honest answer to the question of who will succeed Xi Jinping as China's paramount leader is simply, “We don't know.”
The largest allocation—NT$550 billion—is for the purchase of “air defense, anti-ballistic, and anti-armor missiles.” Another NT$64 billion is ...
Growth met the target, but momentum moderated. China's GDP reached RMB 140.2 trillion (US$19.6 trillion) in 2025, achieving the government's growth objective of “around 5 percent.” Growth momentum, however, moderated throughout the year.
Roughly $11 billion of the budget will be used to pay for HIMARS rocket systems, Javelin anti-tank missiles, howitzers, and loitering munitions ...
Taiwan's legislature failed to reach an agreement on a special procurement budget to fund U.S. arms sales in March, which is already delaying Foreign Military ...
As China enters its 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026–2030), Beijing is signaling an acceleration of its long‑standing military modernization efforts.
The Hai Kun-class submarine alternatively known as the Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program, is a class of attack submarines built by CSBC Corporation ...
China tests Type 076 amphibious assault ship in South China Sea, signaling expanded naval reach and growing amphibious capability.
A blockade would aim to take advantage of Taiwan's status as an island with limited natural resources. Taiwan is much more dependent on trade ...
Australia has already been subject to pressure from US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth to publicly commit to higher defence spending.
Panelists discuss the risk of an armed conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan and how the United States should adapt its ...
Taiwanese public opinion is marked by ambivalence toward the United States. · Expectations of U.S. military defense are common but uneven, while ...
Understanding the nature of Chinese economic coercion is critical for the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan to coordinate and counter the threat.
... deter or resist an invasion. While Ukraine shows Taiwan could expect an outpouring of global humanitarian and military aid if attacked, its island geography ...
Therefore, in China, population ageing exerts a crowding-in effect on military expenditure. While existing scholarship has offered empirical ...
However, if Japan is attacked over Taiwan, South Korea could also face Chinese retaliation, making arguments for separating security plausible.
"The IC assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for ...
The defense spending hike is a necessary step, but it avoids harder questions. By Mor Sobol. December 10, 2025. The Problem With Taiwan's $40 Billion ...
On December 13, GTI hosted a panel discussion on the military and political dimensions of potential Chinese invasion scenarios of Taiwan, ...
[Daily Must-Read] Bonnie Glaser: Cross-Strait Balance May Face Test in 2028 | US Launches Section... 1.3K views · 1 day ago. #習川會#葛來儀 ...
Carl O. Schuster, who has extensive experience in Asia-Pacific military intelligence positions, said ODNI analysts correctly assessed the ...
On August 9, Hudson Institute hosted a conversation with Richard Fisher, Paul Giarra, and Ian Easton on regional security challenges facing Taiwan. Hudson ...
CHINA'S MILITARY POSTURE AND CROSS-STRAIT CONTINGENCIES .....3. A ... . 17 Michael McDevitt, 'Ruminations about How Little We. Know about ...
... Taiwan. 0:00 Introduction 1:50 Faultlines 7:23 The War Puzzle 12:19 The Rise of China 16:45 The Decline of China 25:12 Invasion Plans 32:47 ...
Julia Wang, CIO of North Asia at Nomura International Wealth Management, says they are expecting China's manufacturing sector to excel in ...
Ground-level observations that challenge assumptions about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Announced investment plans by U.S. semiconductor companies and the U.S. government show investment in local semiconductor production capabilities is increasing.
Deterrence pessimists place perhaps the greatest emphasis on further deterioration of US military capabilities. This does jeopardise ...
Freedom Shield 26 is a 10-day defensive exercise conducted by the United States and the Republic of Korea. As the ground component for U.S. ...
The slowdown in China's real estate market has been a key factor putting pressure on the country's GDP growth. In this article, Jian Shi ...
Taiwan touts an asymmetric defense, but outdated thinking and mismanagement of its natural advantages undermine the island's security.
The "status quo" surrounding the cross-Strait issue is actually increasing threat levels and exposes the poverty of diplomatic efforts in the area.
We estimate China will lose nearly 60 million people in the next decade, roughly equivalent to the population of France.
Population trends influence labor supply, economic growth, technological capacity, and military recruitment, which are all core foundations of ...
Supporters of the “window period” argument contend that China now possesses sufficient near-shore deterrence power to complicate or even deter ...
The ODNI released its 2026 Annual Threat Assessment report on March 18 and assessed that the PRC likely will not invade Taiwan in 2027.
The most significant move by President Biden regarding Taiwan has been his commitment to use US military force to help Taiwan in the case of an attack.
The Xi Jinping administration, which was already remarkable for having a third term, is generally expected to move into a fourth term in the ...
A series of non-naval coercive incidents highlighted how China is expanding grey ... activity and state coercion. The challenge for Taiwan and its ...
In Taiwan, an invasion could disrupt not only semiconductor production but also other industries, leading to job losses and economic instability. The ...
The U.S. Navy is expected to temporarily decline to around 287 ships during 2026 before fleet numbers gradually begin rising again. At the same ...
The first key trend is an increase in the frequency and scale of military exercises, as noted (Table 1, above). This dramatic increase in the ...
The Chinese military must increase the private sector's role in research to prevent Western sanctions from “strangling” the country's efforts at ...
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