Research
The dollar's reserve currency status is eroding gradually — its share of global reserves has fallen from 72% in 2001 to roughly 57-58% today, the dollar depreciated ~9% in 2025, and China's CIPS payment system grew 43% in volume last year — but no credible replacement exists, and the dollar still dominates 89% of FX transactions, making collapse unlikely. The sharpest tension in the evidence is between Western analysts who see structural inertia as decisive and non-Western actors (China, India, Gulf states) who are quietly building financial "escape hatches" — bilateral currency arrangements, alternative payment rails, gold reserves — not to dethrone the dollar but to reduce their vulnerability to U.S. sanctions and monetary policy shocks. The counterintuitive finding that matters most: efforts to reduce U.S. trade deficits could paradoxically accelerate dollar decline, since the world's demand for dollar assets is structurally linked to America running those deficits in the first place.
The U.S. dollar (USD) is the most widely used, employed in 89% of foreign exchange transactions in 2025, while the euro is in second place, in ...
De-dollarization entails a significant reduction in the use of dollars in world trade and financial transactions, decreasing national, institutional and ...
BRICS is not attempting to replace the dollar entirely but rather reduce its preeminent position in global finance. While the dollar's liquidity ...
There was a brief pause in foreign investors' accumulation of U.S. assets in early‑2025 and outflows in April and May, and accumulation resumed ...
There seems little prospect of the renminbi's growing prominence having a significant impact on the dollar's status as the dominant payment and reserve currency ...
Little Change in the Composition of International Reserves in Third Quarter of 2025. The latest IMF's Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves ...
April 15, 2025 Last week, confidence in the world's reserve currency was badly shaken after turbulence in U.S. stock and bond markets ...
This paper outlines a strategy for the United States to maintain dollar dominance. It argues that the United States will likely remain the world's largest ...
The tangible benefits to the U.S. of issuing the world's principal reserve currency—the “exorbitant privilege”—have, I think, been significantly ...
EIA forecasts lower oil prices in 2026 and 2027 due to persistent stock builds · Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term ...
Estimated foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury marketable and non-marketable ... data on holdings of Treasury bonds and notes. as reported on TIC Form SLT ...
China and India rank as second and fifth in foreign currency reserve holdings in the world, respectively. Together, the Asian emerging countries comprise ...
Chief Economist: Reducing U.S.' trade deficit may threaten the dollar's reserve currency status. 8.8K views · 1 year ago ...more. CNBC ...
The theory is that the dollar's use as a foreign policy tool and over-use of sanctions like these could make more countries worry about losing ...
The U.S. dollar continues to have strong and dominant roles in all types of international transactions, followed by the euro. Still, speakers ...
9. Barry Eichengreen, “Can the Dollar Remain King of Currencies?,” Financial Times, March 22, 2025, https:// · www.
World War II was the final nail in the coffin of British economic power: in 1945, the United States' GDP was ten times that of Britain. Even ...
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) works to achieve sustainable growth and prosperity for all of its 191 member countries.
The 4 best Swift alternatives for 2026 · 1. Blockchains and stablecoins · 2. Fintechs · 3. Other banking networks · 4. Card networks.
With U.S. dollar financing in particularly high demand during times of crisis, foreign financial institutions may face difficulties in obtaining ...
A much discussed benefit of international currency status is the “exorbitant privilege”.81 Demand by official investors for safe and liquid ...
In recent years rising oil prices have often coincided with a strengthening of the US dollar – which has potentially intensified inflation dynamics in the euro ...
Credit quality improvements in emerging market sovereigns have created opportunities for companies to access the market for U.S. dollar-denominated financing.
We can summarise the relationship between the accounts ... capital and financial account surplus. This surplus is matched by a current account deficit (recorded ...
A CBDC is virtual money created by a central bank. As cryptocurrencies and stablecoins become popular, central banks provide alternatives.
In May 2025, CIPS reported the number of participants had risen by 10% YoY to 1,683, with the vast majority of these being indirect participants ...
High and rising deficits and debt can have many consequences, including that they can put upward pressure on inflation, boost interest rates, ...
The question is when the dollar overtook sterling as the leading currency in which to hold foreign exchange reserves. This answer is of historical interest.
Some economists say that the dollar playing a smaller global role is nothing to fear, and that it would in fact benefit the United States, as ...
An emerging view contends that if a country invoices its exports in dollars, exchange rates cannot stabilize economic activity, as the classical expenditure- ...
Kelton does concede that MMT's position that governments can print money to cover interest payments on their debt only applies to governments ...
The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency. Richard Portes and Hélène Rey. NBER Working Paper No. 6424. February 1998. JEL Nos. F3, F4, G1. ABSTRACT.
Gavekal Research is our flagship service, offering daily commentary on global economies and markets. Founded in 1999 by Charles Gave, Louis-Vincent Gave and ...
Giving up capital controls would mean that the government would relinquish control over investment flows and leave the currency susceptible to decline if ...
China's central bank has plans to roll out a digital yuan, which could circumvent the U.S. dollar in important global financial transactions ...
The average turnover per day with the USD on one side of the transaction was $6.6 trillion – up 14% from $5.8 trillion in 2019 – in line with ...
The January 2025 America First Trade Policy memorandum framed trade policy in national security terms and called for reviews of deficits, unfair ...
Contrary to popular myth, the US dollar's role owes very little to its status as a so-called "reserve currency." The US dollar share of the ...
Assets totaled $42.96 trillion, and liabilities totaled $70.49 trillion. At the end of the third quarter, the net investment position was – ...
Hard currency sovereign and corporate indices are predominantly comprised of US dollar-denominated bonds issued by emerging market governments and corporates,.
On 1 April 2025, the BIS launched its 14th Triennial Central Bank Survey of foreign exchange and over-the-counter derivatives markets. Preliminary results have ...
The international role of the Chinese renminbi has received increased attention recently as Chinese authorities push for increased international usage of the ...
During the past week, the exchange rate of British pound sterling to US dollars has fluctuated between a high of 1.35485 on 13-05-2026 and a low of 1.33085 on ...
The model demonstrates that agents may fail to adopt an alternative currency when network effects and switching costs are present, even when all agents agree ...
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Factors Affecting Reserve Balances - H.4.1 ... Loans are extended from the Federal Reserve Bank to the LLC upon settlement of the ...
After surging by 7.0% in 2024, the US dollar depreciated by 9.4% (DXY basis) in 2025 and we expect that depreciation to extend further this year ...
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