H!
HelloHumans!
Episodes

Research

AI: mayhem or exuberance? Where the 2026 evidence actually points

AI investment and adoption are unambiguously large and fast — $286B in U.S. private investment, enterprise generative AI spending tripling year-over-year, and half of U.S. tech job postings now requiring AI skills — while entry-level hiring has collapsed 50%+ below 2019 levels, though whether AI or macroeconomic tightening is the primary cause remains genuinely unresolved. Firm-level productivity gains are real but concentrated, and roughly 90% of executives report no measurable AI impact on productivity or employment, reviving a productivity paradox familiar from prior general-purpose technology cycles. The most underreported constraint is physical infrastructure: data center occupancy is approaching capacity, grid interconnection queues run 4–10 years, and energy bottlenecks — not model capability — are the actual ceiling on near-term AI scaling.

Sources (50)

Sign up to read the full research briefing

Sign up