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Data centers and national interests: grid costs, FDI, and strategic trade-offs

Global data center electricity demand is on track to more than double by 2030—driven overwhelmingly by AI—while announced FDI in the sector exceeded $270 billion in 2025, making it one of the largest recipients of new foreign investment worldwide; yet grid upgrade costs triggered by this growth are routinely distributed across all ratepayers rather than borne by the facilities causing them, and permanent tax exemptions in multiple U.S. states cost over $100 million annually with minimal permanent job creation. The central unresolved tension is whether data centers accelerate decarbonization—as major renewable PPA buyers—or entrench fossil infrastructure, with utilities planning up to 100 GW of new gas capacity specifically to serve AI demand, a divergence that reflects genuine regional variation rather than mere framing differences. Readers should note that the briefing's source base skews toward institutional and market-oriented analysis, with labor, community-stakeholder, and redistributive perspectives underrepresented—a gap that is load-bearing given that cost allocation and local economic benefit are among the briefing's most contested claims.

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