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The 2022–2023 global tightening cycle was historically unprecedented in speed and synchronization, yet it achieved a rare soft landing — inflation falling from 9.4% without a global recession — though three significant disputes remain unresolved: whether tightening was well-targeted given evidence of supply-driven and profit-driven inflation, whether its distributional costs fell disproportionately on low-wage and minority workers (supported by Fed, NBER, and OECD research, though contested on magnitude), and whether the spillovers to Global South sovereign debt represent an acceptable externality or a structural injustice. Two specialist findings are largely absent from public debate but carry real policy weight: the Fed's $2 trillion balance sheet reduction operates as a parallel tightening channel beyond the headline rate, and ASEAN+3 capital flow management measures reduced bond yield volatility by 37% during the hiking cycle without sacrificing FDI — a result that challenges the mainstream presumption against such tools. Readers who need to go deeper should focus on the contested terrain between the inflation-as-demand versus inflation-as-supply-shock debate, since that empirical disagreement is the load-bearing dispute underneath nearly every other policy argument in this briefing.
This insight analyses the Fed's recent decision to reduce interest rates in the last quarter of 2025 in terms of its dual mandate. ... In 2024, following a few lower monthly inflation readings, the Fed reduced rates three times between September and December 2024 with the goal of bringing interest r...
- After cutting interest rates a cumulative 1.75 percentage points since September 2024 and then bumping back up slightly, the Federal Reserve’s key borrowing benchmark currently sits in a target range of 3.75-4.00%. ... Policymakers haven’t lowered interest rates so far in 2026, but they’ve already...
### Monetary Policy Report submitted to the Congress on February 7, 2025, pursuant to section 2B of the Federal Reserve Act ... After having held the target range for the policy rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent between late July 2023 and mid-September 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) low...
This publication is available on the BIS website (https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2024e.htm). ... BIS Annual Economic Report 2024 This Report went to press on 21 June 2024 using data available up to 31 May 2024. ... The prospects of greater divergence in the outlook for interest rates and concomita...
Links to policy statements and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision. ... #### 2025 FOMC Meetings **January** 28-29 **Statement:** PDF | HTML Implementation Note Press Conference **Minutes:** PDF...
Against this backdrop, the most intense and synchronised monetary policy tightening in decades gave way to a somewhat more differentiated picture, in line with the growing differences in domestic inflation outlooks. Central banks prepared the ground for easing, for example in the euro area and much ...
**Effective Federal Funds Rate, PCE Inflation Rate, Unemployment Rate** **July 2000 – December 2024** ... The demise of global inflation led central banks around the world to cut interest rates in 2024. In September, the Federal Reserve finally provided a long-awaited interest rate cut, as the fed f...
BIS Annual Economic Report 2024 30 June 2024 So far, so good... Chapters Introduction The year under review The AI wave PDF (9 Pages) Introduction So far, so good. ... Against this backdrop, the most intense and synchronised monetary policy tightening in decades gave way to a somewhat more different...
In response to the largest inflation shock in a generation, the ECB implemented the sharpest tightening of monetary policy in its history, increasing policy rates by a record 450 basis points between July 2022 and September 2023 and pledging to keep rates at sufficiently restrictive levels for as lo...
The ECB’s interest rate hikes since 2022 aimed to curb inflation by tightening financial conditions and dampening aggregate demand. ... Although the ECB is expected to gradually ease its restrictive stance by 2025, inflation challenges could re-emerge. ... Monetary analysts and financial markets ...
In order to reinforce progress towards our target, the Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. The rate increase today reflects our assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlyi...
Let me start with the good news. The battle against inflation is almost won. After peaking at 9.4 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2022, we now project headline inflation will fall to 3.5 percent by the end of next year, and in most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central b...
World Economic Outlook (WEO) The global fight against inflation has largely been won and, despite a sharp and synchronised monetary policy tightening, a global recession was avoided, according to the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO)1. Growth in 2024 and 2025 is forecasted to remain stable ...
The White House expressed disappointment on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates, calling the move “rather unfortunate” and arguing it lacked a "compelling economic case." In a decisive move to rein in stubbornly high inflation, the central
1970s, has disproportionately negatively impacted marginalized communities, especially Black Americans. ... In this way, the Volcker shock had a profound impact on communities of color, contributing to an increase in unemployment among these communities. This represented a significant socioeconomic ...
The Fed raised short-term interest rates between March 2022 and July 2023 in an effort to reduce inflation, which ran well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target from 2021 to 2023. As inflation has fallen, the Fed began reducing interest rates in September 2024—before inflation had reached 2%. ... The...
Throughout 2023, the Federal Reserve took a cautious approach to combating inflation, raising rates at only four of its eight meetings.59 By August 2023, the Federal Reserve had increased the federal funds rate by an additional 100 basis points, adding to the previous year’s hikes of 425 basis point...
This paper, in its entirety, can be found at https://report.heritage.org/sr276 ... The Fed has worked to dramatically raise the Fed Funds Effective Rate from 0.08 percent to 4.57 percent between February 2022 and February 2023.141 From February 26, 2020, through the March 9, 2022 (just before ... O...
During the review period, Türkiye’s economy suffered from persistent inflation and currency depreciation, compounded by heavy election-related spending in 2023. Following the elections, the government adopted stricter fiscal discipline, raising interest rates and tightening monetary policy. Yet thes...
Working Paper 31770 http://www.nber.org/papers/w31770 ... October 2023, Revised October 2024 ... The Labor Demand and Labor Supply Channels of Monetary Policy Sebastian Graves, Christopher K. Huckfeldt, and Eric T. Swanson NBER Working Paper No. 31770 October 2023, Revised October 2024 ... Monetar...
available): - People’s Bank of China. (2024). *2024 Q1 Statistical Bulletin on Payment Systems*. [http://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/102111/102113/4925553/index.html](http://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/102111/102113/4925553/index.html) - Reserve Bank of India. (2024). *Mon
925553/index.html) - Reserve Bank of India. (2024). *Monetary Policy Statement – February 2024*. [https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=55621](https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=55621) - ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Resea
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