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Spain's Debate Over Taxes and Pension Funding

Spain's 2021-2023 pension reforms restored full inflation indexation and raised revenue (via the MEI, higher contribution ceilings, and solidarity surcharges) enough to technically satisfy the statutory spending rule, but AIReF, the IMF, and OECD warn this formal compliance masks deeper fiscal risk, with debt projected to hit 129% of GDP by 2050 and expenditure climbing from 12.7% to 16.1% of GDP. The core dispute isn't whether ageing costs will rise, but who absorbs them: progressives and unions want financing through wealth/capital/high-income taxes to preserve adequacy and address gender/precarity gaps, while market-oriented voices (BBVA, FEDEA, Instituto Juan de Mariana) warn that payroll-tax increases erode employment and defer rather than solve the problem. Notably, this synthesis leans heavily

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