Research
Four years in, Russia holds roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory with only marginal gains since late 2022, while both sides face compounding demographic crises — Ukraine's fertility rate has collapsed to 0.9, and Russia has absorbed hundreds of thousands of military casualties alongside mass emigration of young educated men. Ukraine's economy has contracted ~20-29% but avoided collapse, is growing modestly, and has quietly scaled drone production to ~2.2 million units annually across 500 manufacturers, positioning it as a potential European defense-industrial partner — a development underreported relative to its strategic significance. The central tension the full briefing resolves is whether Russia's economy is genuinely fragile under 7.5%-of-GDP military spending or durably adapted, and whether Ukraine's $486-588 billion reconstruction will be democratically governed or captured by transnational capital — two contested questions where source ideology, not just evidence, drives the disagreement.
In light of these massive strains, it is hardly surprising that Ukraine's economy at the end of 2025 was about 20 % smaller than in 2021. The ...
The Russian Armed Forces had 3.57 million troops as of 2026, with 1.32 million being active military personnel. Two million were reserve ...
There are four possible outcomes for Russia's full-scale war on Ukraine: 'long war', 'frozen conflict', 'victory for Ukraine' and 'defeat for Ukraine'.
Russia's mid-term strategy would seek to prevent a major war between NATO and Russia, which might be sparked off by renewed tensions in Ukraine; ...
... Ukraine, a single day of full-scale war costed the country on average a staggering $172mn (€145.7 million) in 2025. Back in 2024, the ...
The GFP index denotes Russia as a Top 5 global military power. For 2026, Russia is ranked 2 of 145 out of the countries considered for the annual GFP review.
Let us review the possible scenarios. At one extreme, there could be an annexation of Ukraine, not unlike Iraq did with Kuwait in 1990.
Russian military thinkers have realized that the current Russian armed forces are far from what they should be for modern warfare.
Ukraine remains under martial law and general mobilisation, extended on 14 January 2026 for. 90 days until 4 May 2026. Mobilisation is governed ...
For November 2025, the Ukrainian General Staff estimates monthly Russian losses at 31,000 personnel, marking the third consecutive month of ...
DFC Announces U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund Fully Operational and Poised for First Investments. Media Release. December 18, 2025.
The UK, France, Spain, Italy and Canada opposed a NATO proposal to commit 0.25% of GDP to military assistance for Ukraine.
Ukraine is facing an increasingly acute military manpower challenge. Severe shortages in frontline units, reduced voluntary recruitment, ...
Data on battlefield losses in 2025 provided by BBC ... decline further in the beginning of 2025, before demographic data was classified.
This Agreement strengthens the strategic partnership between the Parties for the long-term reconstruction and modernization of Ukraine, in response to the large ...
In 2025, Allies have so far committed an additional EUR 35 billion in security assistance for Ukraine, and this support is expected to continue. NATO-Ukraine ...
The war may be described as having revealed five surprises: (1) the full-scale invasion itself; (2) the true state of the Russian armed forces, ...
Russia stokes fear ahead of Moldova elections, claiming NATO invasion is imminent. Keen to bring Moldova back under its influence, the Kremlin ...
Today, new patterns are emerging, affecting Ukraine's agricultural recovery and Russia's ability to use its food exports for political benefit.
Abstract: The conflict in Ukraine is the most serious assault on the post-Cold War security architecture in Europe and the West generally.
Our J.P. Morgan Research colleagues recently updated their forecasted timing: whereas they previously expected the war to end in 2026, they now predict it will ...
Amongst his new targets are Moldova, Georgia and the Western Balkans, where Moscow is fomenting chaos in the hopes of diverting Western attention.
While the current grain arrangement allows Ukraine to export about 22 million tons of grain, Russia constantly attacks the ports and shipments, ...
The post-Cold War security architecture in Europe has been crumbling for the last decade and certainly has been shattered since Russia's ...
NATO reaffirms Ukraine's irreversible path to membership despite some allies' doubts, emphasizing the need for immediate security guarantees ...
Slowing growth, depressed oil prices, harsher sanctions, and high inflation ... A new Atlantic Council report explores the effect of sanctions on ...
Reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine will cost almost $588 billion over the next decade, or nearly three times the estimated GDP in 2025 ...
Significant shifts in China's foreign policy could take place following a full-fledged visit by Chinese leader Xi Jinping to the United States, ...
Defending Ukraine in the Absence of NATO Security Guarantees. This report is part of the Council Special Initiative on Securing Ukraine's Future. Executive ...
The sanctions coalition applied new pressures to the Russian economy in 2025 that focused primarily on reducing its oil and gas export earnings.
“Four years into Russia's full-scale invasion, the total cost of Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery is now estimated at nearly $588 billion ...
How has China responded to Russia's war in Ukraine, and what does this reveal about its role in the international order?
These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse ...
Public opinion plays a significant role. War fatigue is increasingly visible in Western democracies. While majorities in many countries still ...
Discover how Moldova's constitutional neutrality leaves it vulnerable to Russian hybrid threats and military pressure.
ISW has not observed evidence of UAF operating within Pokrovsk since late January 2025, indicating that Russian forces seized the town.
Through the lens of military innovations theory, it is evident that Russia is adapting its tactics and technology based on lessons from Ukraine, ...
Some proportion of Western publics will never abandon Ukraine. Another proportion views continued support as economically irrational. A ...
If Transnistria continues to be ignored, the breakaway state will gradually become a deserted subsidized Russian military base.
“The worldwide population decline is set to begin decades ahead of their expectations,” writes Marc Novicoff in The Atlantic.
As the thawing Arctic's geostrategic importance grows, military and economic objectives are becoming increasingly intertwined.
A "frozen conflict" occurs when a part of a country's territory is out of the control of the central government, and full-scale hostilities have ...
As of December 31, 2025, the U.S. Congress had made available $188 billion in spending related to the war in Ukraine, according to the U.S. Special Inspector ...
According to a March 2025 study by Ukraine's Center for Economic Strategy, only 43% of Ukrainian refugees worldwide plan to return. Two years ...
With this round of NATO expansion, Russia's northwestern flank transformed from a zone of relative neutrality to a potential militarized frontier associated.
Russia basically controls 20% of Ukraine. But a significant figure is that since 2022, it has only gained 12% of that territory. The 20% that it controls ...
Only 27% of Ukrainians say they trust potential future U.S. security guarantees, a drop from 39% in a survey done in January. Only 40% of ...
The troubling discovery does not mean Western companies are selling to Russia. Rather, it reflects systemic weaknesses in a global semiconductor ...
Russia has been utilizing a mix of gray zone tactics and open threats of military action to weaken NATO and assert a practical veto over its ...
As a part of the final settlement, Russia and Ukraine agree to negotiate a U.S.-brokered security architecture that moves beyond the non-binding ...
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