Research

Degrowth vs. Green Growth: Decoupling Prosperity from Resource Use

The central empirical dispute is whether apparent decoupling in wealthy nations reflects genuine emissions reduction or an accounting artifact — territorial emissions figures (43 countries achieving absolute CO2 decoupling post-Paris) look more credible when consumption-based accounting is excluded, and critics including Hickel and Zhang argue the difference is largely emissions outsourced to the Global South through trade. Both frameworks face unresolved feasibility problems: green growth lacks evidence of decoupling at the speed and material scale required, while degrowth has no historical precedent and no demonstrated mechanism for protecting the poorest during contraction. A significant gap in this briefing is the near-total absence of market-oriented, innovation-incentive, and consumer-sovereignty perspectives, meaning the case that price signals and technological competition could drive sufficient decoupling without deliberate contraction has not been tested against the evidence presented here.