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The Congo Critical Minerals Deal: Lifeline or Leverage?

The DRC holds 70-80% of global cobalt supply and mining constitutes 46% of its GDP, yet only ~3% of cobalt sales value historically accrued to Congolese society — the structural condition that makes the December 2025 U.S.-DRC Strategic Partnership Agreement both genuinely consequential and deeply contested. Proponents frame the SPA as supply-chain diversification with development co-benefits; critics argue its legal architecture erodes Congolese sovereignty through joint governance mechanisms, preferential U.S. access rights, and mandated mining-law reforms, while bypassing parliamentary approval entirely. The most important unresolved tension is empirical rather than ideological: comparators like Indonesia's nickel export ban and Zambia's transparency-without-enforcement experience suggest the deal's developmental value hinges entirely on whether the DRC can exercise sovereign industrial policy within it — and no post-implementation data yet exists to test that question.

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